2014/07/15

The Best Business Book I’ve Ever Read

這是Bill Gates推薦的書, (巴菲特先推薦給他的)
Not long after I first met Warren Buffett back in 1991, I asked him to recommend his favorite book about business. He didn’t miss a beat: “It’s Business Adventures, by John Brooks,” he said. “I’ll send you my copy.” I was intrigued: I had never heard of Business Adventures or John Brooks.
Today, more than two decades after Warren lent it to me—and more than four decades after it was first published—Business Adventures remains the best business book I’ve ever read. John Brooks is still my favorite business writer. (And Warren, if you’re reading this, I still have your copy.)
A skeptic might wonder how this out-of-print collection of New Yorker articles from the 1960s could have anything to say about business today. After all, in 1966, when Brooks profiled Xerox, the company’s top-of-the-line copier weighed 650 pounds, cost $27,500, required a full-time operator, and came with a fire extinguisher because of its tendency to overheat. A lot has changed since then.
It’s certainly true that many of the particulars of business have changed. But the fundamentals have not. 
Brooks’s deeper insights about business are just as relevant today as they were back then. In terms of its longevity, Business Adventures stands alongside Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, the 1949 book that Warren says is the best book on investing that he has ever read.
Brooks grew up in New Jersey during the Depression, attended Princeton University (where he roomed with future Secretary of State George Shultz), and, after serving in World War II, turned to journalism with dreams of becoming a novelist. In addition to his magazine work, he published a handful of books, only some of which are still in print. He died in 1993.
As the journalist Michael Lewis wrote in his foreword to Brooks’s book The Go-Go Years, even when Brooks got things wrong, “at least he got them wrong in an interesting way.” 
Unlike a lot of today’s business writers, Brooks didn’t boil his work down into pat how-to lessons or simplistic explanations for success. (How many times have you read that some company is taking off because they give their employees free lunch?) You won’t find any listicles in his work. Brooks wrote long articles that frame an issue, explore it in depth, introduce a few compelling characters, and show how things went for them.
In one called “The Impacted Philosophers,” he uses a case of price-fixing at General Electric to explore miscommunication—sometimes intentional miscommunicationup and down the corporate ladder. It was, he writes, “a breakdown in intramural communication so drastic as to make the building of the Tower of Babel seem a triumph of organizational rapport.”
In “The Fate of the Edsel,” he refutes the popular explanations for why Ford’s flagship car was such a historic flop. 
It wasn’t because the car was overly poll-tested; it was because Ford’s executives only pretended to be acting on what the polls said. 
“Although the Edsel was supposed to be advertised, and otherwise promoted, strictly on the basis of preferences expressed in polls, some old-fashioned snake-oil selling methods, intuitive rather than scientific, crept in.” 
It certainly didn’t help that the first Edsels “were delivered with oil leaks, sticking hoods, trunks that wouldn’t open, and push buttons that…couldn’t be budged with a hammer.”
投民調結果所好,大搞行銷包裝,並不能解決技術問題,也無法便宜行事.
One of Brooks’s most instructive stories is “Xerox Xerox Xerox Xerox.” (The headline alone belongs in the Journalism Hall of Fame.) 
The example of Xerox is one that everyone in the tech industry should study. 
Starting in the early ’70s, the company funded a huge amount of R&D that wasn’t directly related to copiers, including research that led to Ethernet networks and the first graphical user interface (the look you know today as Windows or OS X).
R&D的研究領域方向是否正確,  
R&D 的 research decision
產品開發是基於既有的研發成果? 
有無研究到關鍵?
能否 :  built on original, outside-the-box thinking, which makes it all the more surprising ?
CEO的主觀
But because Xerox executives didn’t think these ideas fit their core business, they chose not to turn them into marketable products. Others stepped in and went to market with products based on the research that Xerox had done
Both Apple and Microsoft, for example, drew on Xerox’s work on graphical user interfaces.
I know I’m not alone in seeing this decision as a mistake on Xerox’s part. I was certainly determined to avoid it at Microsoft. I pushed hard to make sure that we kept thinking big about the opportunities created by our research in areas like computer vision and speech recognition. Many other journalists have written about Xerox, but Brooks’s article tells an important part of the company’s early story. He shows how it was built on original, outside-the-box thinking, which makes it all the more surprising that as Xerox matured, it would miss out on unconventional ideas developed by its own researchers.
Brooks was also a masterful storyteller. He could craft a page-turner like “The Last Great Corner,” about the man who founded the Piggly Wiggly grocery chain and his attempt to foil investors intent on shorting his company’s stock. I couldn’t wait to see how things turned out for him. (Here’s a spoiler: Not well.) Other times you can almost hear Brooks chuckling as he tells some absurd story. 
There’s a passage in “The Fate of the Edsel” in which a PR man for Ford organizes a fashion show for the wives of newspaper reporters. The host of the fashion show turns out to be a female impersonator, which might seem edgy today but would have been scandalous for a major American corporation in 1957. Brooks notes that the reporters’ wives “were able to give their husbands an extra paragraph or two for their stories.”
Brooks’s work is a great reminder that the rules for running a strong business and creating value haven’t changed. 
For one thing, there’s an essential human factor in every business endeavor. It doesn’t matter if you have a perfect product, production plan, and marketing pitch; you’ll still need the right people to lead and implement those plans.
That is a lesson you learn quickly in business, and I’ve been reminded of it at every step of my career, first at Microsoft and now at the foundation. Which people are you going to back? Do their roles fit their abilities? Do they have both the IQ and EQ to succeed? Warren is famous for this approach at Berkshire Hathaway, where he buys great businesses run by wonderful managers and then gets out of the way.
Business Adventures is as much about the strengths and weaknesses of leaders in challenging circumstances as it is about the particulars of one business or another. In that sense, it is still relevant not despite its age but because of it. John Brooks’s work is really about human nature, which is why it has stood the test of time.

2014/07/13

巴菲特寫給股東的信

更多有關 巴菲特寫給股東的信 的事情









他的觀念是投資的箴言

  • 公司經營的意義: "產生現金的能力"及擁有良好經營團隊.

著重基本面分析 
經理人士股東資金的管理者. 
經理人與股東之間要有坦率和明白的溝通.   

"誠信" !!!

組織架構套在商業情況其實沒什麼用.  

所以那些職位 title, 什麼協理,副總.... 在他眼光根本就不是重點. 官僚沒什麼意義, 正確的商業判斷才是最重要的.

重點:

選對的人, 選一流人才(有能力,誠實,努力工作).
董事會成員需要有商業智慧.

  • 如何評量CEO?

CEO不列席
定期review CEO工作表現
工作表現與薪酬連結
工作表現以選擇權發放連結 
傑出的經理人應靠現金紅利

思考

1 企業長期的經濟特質
2企業管理階層素質及誠信 
3 未來tax 和inflation的水平

  • 不分散投資,專注.  忌不斷換股,  交易成本很高. 
  • 需評量價格和價值之間的關係 
  • 遵守 安全邊際原則


  • 體制性的阻力會抗拒變革

100%的收購,沒理由付出溢價.

  • 企業的3 個基本問題:
1公司價值大約多少?
2未來償還債務的能力?
3管理階層經營事業的能力

以選擇權,將員工與企業綁在同一條船上


  • 經理人的3個特質

1 熱愛自己的工作
2 想法和股東一致
3充滿正直的心和卓越的能力

經理人的成效

往往與所處的產業有關. 搭產業順風車
產業本身的特質很重要

  • 獎金

不應考量年資,年齡,應直接與績效掛勾
酬勞與自身權責直接關聯, 等於是合夥人

當個產業分析師


作為一個投資人:

1 要有正確的商業判斷
2 堅持自己的想法 
3 不受傳染性市場情緒影響

其實投資的態度與擁有一家公司的控制權是一致的


評估:

1 企業長期經濟體質
2 企業管理階層的能力
3 是否信任管理會將收益回歸股東
4 企業的收購價
5 tax和 inflation的程度

股利政策

反應盈餘和額外資金報酬率2者的長期展望

週轉率: 對莊家有利,對賭客不利


收購 

其實對買方不利,因為是由賣方提出數字

巴菲特很善用比喻, 將投資觀念以簡單的比喻表達的很清楚. 

值得一讀再讀. 

企業就像鏡子,反映老闆的誠信.  

台灣企業會被巴菲特看上的機會很低. 東西方文化和對誠信的重視有很大的差異. 

若以他的標準,其實很多台灣的企業都是不及格. 

他是在他的投資哲學理找與他理念相投的企業, 

投資與企業管理其實哲理相通. 是物以類聚,  所以他的投資績效當然反映他的眼光與100%的理性.   


職場中人也很適合讀他的書. 

當理解了, 對企業的熱情可能會減少.  

理智往往是熱情的相反.

閱讀地圖

歷史上人為書而瘋狂, 但現實裡, 愛書的人仍有但是越來越難尋. 一切知識的傳播都是靠書, 書靠印刷術的發明的普及與傳播. 書,權勢的權力還是在讀者, 有讀者,書才會有意義..